Ramaphosa remains popular choice among ANC and opposition – survey

CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA - OCTOBER 20: Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa during the 30th anniversary celebration of The National Education, Health and Allied Workers Union (NEHAWU) at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Bellville Campus on October 20, 2017 in Cape Town, South Africa. The celebrations will take the form of a lecture on the history of the union dating back to 1987 when the giant public sector union was founded. (Photo by Gallo Images / Brenton Geach)

Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa remains the “popular choice” to lead the ANC to a victory in the upcoming 2019 elections, according to the figures collected by technology based research company, Ratepop.

The company released its latest public opinion survey on Monday. Results were collected from a panel of 2100 South Africans who, back in 2016, voted for the ANC in the local government elections.

Some of the main issues identified by 1909 ANC voters include that of employment, housing and black economic empowerment, and with this weekend’s upcoming 54th ANC elective conference set to take place, a lot more is at stake than just the ANC leadership.

Based on the results from various questions posed to its participants, Ramaphosa remains the popular choice, with far more users (81.1% ) saying that they would vote for the ANC if the deputy president was the ruling party’s leader in 2019.

43.8% said that, should Dlamini-Zuma be leader of the ANC in 2019, they would vote for the ANC.

When asked which candidate they’d prefer to be the next president of the ANC, out of 687 respondents, an overwhelming 58.9% (405) indicated their preference towards Ramaphosa, and only 16% (110) chose Dlamini-Zuma.

“Ramaphosa’s support has increased nearly 10% among voters since Ratepop polling began in June 2017,” the company said.

How do these numbers relate to opposition parties?

Well, both contenders, Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma, have immense influence over how the rest of the voting will pan out, particularly when it comes to opposition parties, from whom the ANC is hoping to get votes.

50.9% of the Democratic Alliance’s black African voters have indicated that they will cast their vote for the ANC in 2019 should Ramaphosa be elected ANC leader in this weekends ANC national executive committee elections. Should Dlamini-Zuma be voted in as the ANC’s incoming leader this December, a far smaller proportion will vote for the ANC in 2019, only 6.9%.

“The DA should be particularly concerned about the prospects of a Ramaphosa presidency and should, in their own self-interest, be supporting Dlamini-Zuma as their preferred candidate for ANC presidency,” Ratepop said.

Similarly, 43.4% of the Economic Freedom Fighters’ black voters will to vote for the ANC should Ramaphosa be its leader in 2019.

An underwhelming 3.4% of its’ voters would vote for the ANC should Dlamini-Zuma be in charge.

Ratepop says that based on the votership of the EFF (94.2% of the EFF’s voters in 2016 were black), “a Ramaphosa presidency would have a devastating effect on the EFF, while a Dlamini-Zuma presidency has a statistical insignificant impact on the EFF”.

* This article first appeared on City Press Online.

(Photo credit: Gallo Images / Brenton Geach)